Some Say a Renaissance Is Already Under Way. Here’s the Case They Make—and the Skeptics’ Response
Manufacturing in the U.S. is starting to make a comeback, and is poised for even bigger gains in the years ahead.That, at least, is the way the optimists see it.Driven partly by more competitive labor and energy costs and companies’ desire to produce goods closer to their customers, the number of factory jobs has started to rise after plunging for decades, edging up by about 600,000 over the past four years to more than 12 million. Some U.S. companies are bringing jobs back home, and foreign businesses are setting up shop. Newspapers are trumpeting investments in American production, and advertisements—such as the nostalgia-drenched Chrysler TV ad shown during the Super Bowl and featuring Bob Dylan —celebrate a resurgent U.S. manufacturing sector.”The economics of the world are changing in favor of U.S. manufacturing,” says Hal Sirkin, a Chicago-based senior partner of Boston Consulting Group.
That’s the case made by the bulls, but plenty of skeptics argue that there are lots of reasons to doubt it. For all the positive trends and statistics, they cite numbers pointing the other way. And, the skeptics argue, the U.S. government needs to overhaul its policies and industry must invest more heavily before any real change can happen.
With that in mind, here are four reasons to bet on U.S. factories—and four reasons to be cautious.
THE OPTIMISTS’ CASE, PART 1: U.S. costs are getting more competitive
While wages soar at double-digit rates in China and some other emerging countries, they have stayed roughly level in the U.S. in recent years, narrowing the gap between America and Asia. Boston Consulting Group estimates that China’s overall manufacturing-cost advantage has shrunk to just 4%. When wages are adjusted for productivity and the costs of shipping and inventories are included, it can be more economical to make some products in the U.S. than in Asia.
Just look at where corporations are increasing their investments. In 2011, according to the latest data, U.S. multinational manufacturers did $116 billion in capital spending overseas—up 68% from a decade before, according to the federal government. During the same period, their capital spending in the U.S. declined 2% to $189 billion.
THE OPTIMISTS’ CASE, PART 3: The political climate for manufacturing in the U.S. has improvedAmerican manufacturers have often grumbled that government subsidies and incentives are more generous overseas. But state and local governments in the U.S. now are competing fiercely for investments and offering some rich packages. Electrolux AB of Sweden received more than $180 million of incentives, including tax breaks, to build a $190 million cooking-appliance plant in Memphis, Tenn., that opened last year. Politicians are so eager to talk about jobs that they will show up to celebrate even minor expansions: In April, Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon attended a ceremony to hail the creation of 22 jobs in an expansion of a 3M Co. plant that makes graphic films.The declining power of U.S. unions also encourages some manufacturers to set up in the U.S. rather than Europe or elsewhere. Caterpillar Inc. closed a railroad-locomotive plant in Lon
don, Ontario, in 2012 after union members there refused to accept pay cuts of about 50%. Production moved to a new nonunion plant in Muncie, Ind.
THE REBUTTAL: The political climate still isn’t that great
The top federal income-tax rate for U.S. corporations, 35%, is the highest among major industrial countries. U.S. tax rules also give American firms an incentive to keep large amounts of cash invested overseas rather than at home.
Meanwhile, political gridlock in Washington leaves companies highly uncertain about future taxes, health-care costs and repairs to the nations’ crumbling roads, bridges and ports. Caterpillar says capacity constraints and outdated technology at U.S. ports have prompted it to use Canadian ports for about 40% of the company’s imports and exports.
THE OPTIMISTS’ CASE, PART 4: Foreign companies are betting on U.S. manufacturing
Germany’s BMW AG in March announced a $1 billion expansion of its car plant in Spartanburg, S.C., aimed at increasing production capacity 50%. Michelin of France last year opened a plant in South Carolina to make giant tires for earth-moving equipment. China’s Lenovo Group is making personal computers in North Carolina.
Even the U.S. footwear industry, after decades of decline, is showing signs of life. Merchant House International Ltd., headed by Hong Kong entrepreneur Loretta B.H. Lee, has been making work boots in China and selling them in the U.S. since the early 1980s. In May, the company started producing some of its boots at a new plant in Jefferson City, Tenn.
China remained the No. 1 destination for foreign direct investment in 2013, according to estimates from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. But China’s total last year rose just 2% from a year earlier to $258.2 billion. The U.S. attracted $193.4 billion, up 16%, to rank No. 2.
THE REBUTTAL: The flow of jobs goes both ways
Harry Moser, president of the Reshoring Initiative, a nonprofit that encourages companies to consider bringing production back to the U.S., estimates that such moves are creating at least 40,000 U.S. jobs a year. But he says the number of jobs moving from the U.S. to other countries is probably around the same level.
Briggs & Stratton Corp. moved all its production of horizontal-shaft motors for portable generators from the U.S. to China last year. Todd Teske, the Milwaukee-based company’s chief executive officer, says production costs for that type of motor were lower in China. (Briggs still makes more than 85% of its motors in the U.S., a spokeswoman says.)
Critics also point to some other numbers that aren’t so rosy. Trade figures, for instance, don’t back up the idea that the U.S. has become much more competitive. U.S. manufacturing exports—excluding agricultural items, petroleum and coal—rose just 1.6% last year to $1.16 trillion, according to data from Global Trade Information Services Inc., a Geneva-based data provider. China’s manufacturing exports increased 7.7% to $2.06 trillion. Meanwhile, U.S. imports of manufactured goods also grew 1.6% last year, reaching $1.63 trillion.
Nor is there any sign of a U.S. factory-building boom. Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist at the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, a research organization in Arlington, Va., says his analysis of government data shows that there are about 304,000 manufacturing plants in the U.S., down from 375,000 in 1998. The good news is that the number appears to be leveling off after a long fall.
Experts who are more sanguine about manufacturing say the statistics need to be put in context.
Boston Consulting Group’s Mr. Sirkin says the U.S. manufacturing recovery he sees is “just in the beginning stages” and should start improving the trade performance in 2015 and beyond.
As for factories, one reason the number isn’t rising is that the U.S. still has plenty of spare capacity at underused or vacant plants, says Mr. Moser of the Reshoring Initiative.
All in all, says Mr. Meckstroth of the Manufacturers Alliance, it is too early to say whether the U.S. will have a major recovery in manufacturing. “The potential is there,” he says, but the U.S. needs to do a lot more—including a more competitive tax code and better vocational training. He also thinks the U.S. needs to try to get other countries to reduce trade barriers and let their currencies float freely instead of keeping them artificially weak.
Mr. Hagerty is a Wall Street Journal news editor in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at bob.hagerty@wsj.com.
Tesla Finds Home in Nevada
in American Made, Jobs, Manufacturing, Sustainability/by The Made in America Movement TeamElon Musk, co-founder and CEO of American electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla Motors.
CARSON CITY, Nev. (AP) — Tesla finds home in Nevada! Gov. Brian Sandoval announced Thursday that Nevada won a high-stakes battle with four other states for Tesla Motors’ coveted battery factory, but the win comes with a hefty price tag — up to $1.3 billion in tax breaks and other incentives over 20 years that state lawmakers still must approve.
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‘Made in America’ Not Easy For Retailers To Deliver-On
in American Made/by MAM TeamAs the nation prepares to celebrate its 238th birthday, “Buy America” efforts are still going strong, though emotions on the subject tend to fluctuate depending on the state of the economy.But what about products, ranging from toothpicks to towels, with specific patriotic motifs? Or the U.S. flag itself? Should those products, which are marketed with an Uncle Sam sentiment in mind, be made in the United States?”It doesn’t really matter to me,” said Luis Rodriguez, a retired postal worker who last week sat on a picnic table in a Satellite Beach park wearing a postal carrier union T-shirt with the famed red-white-and-blue eagle — the Postal Service’s mascot.”What I do is make sure the correct number of stars and stripes are being used,” Rodriguez said. “If not, then I have more of a problem with it. But I’m not really too concerned about where it’s made.”
Vietnam War veteran and former Marine Corps infantryman Chip Hanson disagrees. He believes in a “buy American” philosophy. Patriotic items — including items that will be used in July Fourth parties this week — should be manufactured in the United States, he said. That includes plastic forks, paper plates and napkins.
“Most definitely it should come from our country,” he said. “If you look at what’s happening in our country, we’ve slipped into a situation where we are depending on other nations for our primary items.”
Retailers aren’t tone deaf to patriotic emotions when it comes to buying American. Wal-Mart, for example, pledged last year to buy $50 billion over a decade in American-made products.
Still last week, many of the products sold with patriotic themes were made in places such as the Dominican Republic and China. And how’s this for irony? Wal-Mart sells U.S. flags for $34.72 with the label on the packageproclaiming “Made in the USA.” However, a pole and bracket set sold along aside it are imported from China.
Thank some of the dichotomy to a global economy where cheap foreign labor and low-cost, offshore manufacturing practices make it more difficult for cost-conscious consumers to routinely purchase American-made products.
“People have become extremely price sensitive,” said Steve Kirn, executive director of the University of Florida’s Miller Center for Retailing Education and Research. “It’s hard to have these extremely low prices — and price is king right now for the vast majority of consumers — with low production costs coming from Asian countries, and now, African countries.”
That’s changing, somewhat, as labor costs in places like China rise, Kirn said. A number of U.S.-based textile and clothing manufacturers, for example, are seeing new life because it’s become more cost-effective to manufacture domestically.
“Some of the textile mills in the Carolinas are reopening, and I think there is an appeal to that for a variety of reasons,” he said. “You control the supply chain, you know what the raw materials are and you know what you’re getting. And you’re closer to the place where you’re ultimately going to vend it.”
Wherever you stand on the issue of prices versus patriotism, Florida “Buy American” advocate Roger Simmermaker said July Fourth is a good time for citizens to take stock about how they are spending their money whether they’re going to support jobs in the United States or outside the country.
“We have a Declaration of Independence, not a declaration of interdependence,” said Simmermaker, an author of two books on buying U.S. made products.
“Buying American is about more than just American-made products and U.S. jobs,” he said. “We’re less of an independent country to the extent that we rely on other nations to supply our wants and needs.”
‘Made in USA’ True Again
in American Made, Manufacturing & Sourcing/by MAM TeamAlso beneficial to U.S. domestic user and consumer demand requirements are the rising costs incurred by labor and management in China, and to a lesser extent in other dynamic manufacturing sector nations such as Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
This redounds to the benefit of America’s manufacturers, not only in shrinking costs, but lessening the need of huge advance orders to get the best price from foreign exporters. Also, the ability of domestic U.S. manufacturers through its distribution, to keep inventories current, without overburdening supply, definitely tilts the advantage increasingly to the domestic industrial manufacturing sector.
Although this obvious rebound of the U.S.A.’s industrial sector benefits the American economy as a whole, it probably will do little to alleviate the chronic unemployment, as tightening government regulations and advanced tech, plus increased use of part-time workers do not translate into a torrent of substantial additional production employees.
Morris R. Beschloss writes a regular blog at www.desertsun.com/beschloss and a column that can be found Sunday in The Desert Sun.
What do you think?
Do you agree or disagree with Morris Beschloss? Let us know via comments below.
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Why U.S. Manufacturing Is Poised for a Comeback (Maybe)
in Manufacturing & Sourcing/by MAM TeamThat’s the case made by the bulls, but plenty of skeptics argue that there are lots of reasons to doubt it. For all the positive trends and statistics, they cite numbers pointing the other way. And, the skeptics argue, the U.S. government needs to overhaul its policies and industry must invest more heavily before any real change can happen.
With that in mind, here are four reasons to bet on U.S. factories—and four reasons to be cautious.
THE OPTIMISTS’ CASE, PART 1: U.S. costs are getting more competitive
While wages soar at double-digit rates in China and some other emerging countries, they have stayed roughly level in the U.S. in recent years, narrowing the gap between America and Asia. Boston Consulting Group estimates that China’s overall manufacturing-cost advantage has shrunk to just 4%. When wages are adjusted for productivity and the costs of shipping and inventories are included, it can be more economical to make some products in the U.S. than in Asia.
Replicating those skills and supply chains in the U.S. is conceivable, but it would require many years of heavy investment. The big question is whether U.S. companies, which are typically focused on pleasing Wall Street with quarterly results, will make those long-term investments.
As for cheaper energy, sure, low-cost natural gas is spurring huge investment in some U.S. industries, such as petrochemicals and fertilizers. But energy costs aren’t the decisive factor for most manufacturers.
In an August 2013 survey of 216 U.S.-based manufacturing executives, Boston Consulting Group found that only 7% ranked energy costs as being among the most important factors in deciding whether to locate production in the U.S., behind factors like access to skilled labor.
THE OPTIMISTS’ CASE, PART 2: Companies are more eager to produce near their customers
Most companies still see their greatest long-term growth opportunities in Asia, Latin America and Africa, as hundreds of millions of poor people move up to the middle class. Emerging markets are likely to remain a higher investment priority than the slower-growing markets of North America and Europe.
don, Ontario, in 2012 after union members there refused to accept pay cuts of about 50%. Production moved to a new nonunion plant in Muncie, Ind.
THE REBUTTAL: The political climate still isn’t that great
The top federal income-tax rate for U.S. corporations, 35%, is the highest among major industrial countries. U.S. tax rules also give American firms an incentive to keep large amounts of cash invested overseas rather than at home.
Meanwhile, political gridlock in Washington leaves companies highly uncertain about future taxes, health-care costs and repairs to the nations’ crumbling roads, bridges and ports. Caterpillar says capacity constraints and outdated technology at U.S. ports have prompted it to use Canadian ports for about 40% of the company’s imports and exports.
THE OPTIMISTS’ CASE, PART 4: Foreign companies are betting on U.S. manufacturing
Germany’s BMW AG in March announced a $1 billion expansion of its car plant in Spartanburg, S.C., aimed at increasing production capacity 50%. Michelin of France last year opened a plant in South Carolina to make giant tires for earth-moving equipment. China’s Lenovo Group is making personal computers in North Carolina.
Even the U.S. footwear industry, after decades of decline, is showing signs of life. Merchant House International Ltd., headed by Hong Kong entrepreneur Loretta B.H. Lee, has been making work boots in China and selling them in the U.S. since the early 1980s. In May, the company started producing some of its boots at a new plant in Jefferson City, Tenn.
China remained the No. 1 destination for foreign direct investment in 2013, according to estimates from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. But China’s total last year rose just 2% from a year earlier to $258.2 billion. The U.S. attracted $193.4 billion, up 16%, to rank No. 2.
THE REBUTTAL: The flow of jobs goes both ways
Harry Moser, president of the Reshoring Initiative, a nonprofit that encourages companies to consider bringing production back to the U.S., estimates that such moves are creating at least 40,000 U.S. jobs a year. But he says the number of jobs moving from the U.S. to other countries is probably around the same level.
Briggs & Stratton Corp. moved all its production of horizontal-shaft motors for portable generators from the U.S. to China last year. Todd Teske, the Milwaukee-based company’s chief executive officer, says production costs for that type of motor were lower in China. (Briggs still makes more than 85% of its motors in the U.S., a spokeswoman says.)
Critics also point to some other numbers that aren’t so rosy. Trade figures, for instance, don’t back up the idea that the U.S. has become much more competitive. U.S. manufacturing exports—excluding agricultural items, petroleum and coal—rose just 1.6% last year to $1.16 trillion, according to data from Global Trade Information Services Inc., a Geneva-based data provider. China’s manufacturing exports increased 7.7% to $2.06 trillion. Meanwhile, U.S. imports of manufactured goods also grew 1.6% last year, reaching $1.63 trillion.
Nor is there any sign of a U.S. factory-building boom. Daniel Meckstroth, chief economist at the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, a research organization in Arlington, Va., says his analysis of government data shows that there are about 304,000 manufacturing plants in the U.S., down from 375,000 in 1998. The good news is that the number appears to be leveling off after a long fall.
Experts who are more sanguine about manufacturing say the statistics need to be put in context.
Boston Consulting Group’s Mr. Sirkin says the U.S. manufacturing recovery he sees is “just in the beginning stages” and should start improving the trade performance in 2015 and beyond.
As for factories, one reason the number isn’t rising is that the U.S. still has plenty of spare capacity at underused or vacant plants, says Mr. Moser of the Reshoring Initiative.
All in all, says Mr. Meckstroth of the Manufacturers Alliance, it is too early to say whether the U.S. will have a major recovery in manufacturing. “The potential is there,” he says, but the U.S. needs to do a lot more—including a more competitive tax code and better vocational training. He also thinks the U.S. needs to try to get other countries to reduce trade barriers and let their currencies float freely instead of keeping them artificially weak.
Mr. Hagerty is a Wall Street Journal news editor in Pittsburgh. He can be reached at bob.hagerty@wsj.com.
Why ‘Made in the USA’ is hard for Walmart to achieve
in Consumer Products, Economy, Jobs, Made in USA, Manufacturing, Walmart/by MAM TeamAn “Assembled in the USA” stamp is seen at the side of a box containing a 32-inch television set in the warehouse of Element Electronics, in Winnsboro, South Carolina. Element’s 315,000-square-foot plant in South Carolina has six assembly lines making 32- and 40-inch TVs that are now available in all of Walmart’s more than 4,000 U.S. Stores. REUTERS/Chris Keane
Walmart has pledged to buy an additional $250 billion in US-made products. But finding quality, low-cost US made goods is proving a challenge. How Walmart is acting as a catalyst for ‘Made in the USA’ manufacturing.
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To Close the Skills Gap in Manufacturing Careers, Close the Gender Gap
in American Made, Jobs, Skills Gap/by MAM TeamRead more
America's STEM Talent Pool Too Shallow to Meet Demand
in Jobs/by MAM TeamThe U.S. News/Raytheon STEM Index shows that STEM employment in the United States has gone up by more than 30 percent, from 12.8 million STEM jobs (as defined by the U.S. government) in 2000 to 16.8 million in 2013, and a February report by Burning Glass Technologies indicated the STEM job market is actually far larger than that. Kelly also points out that the analytical reasoning and problem-solving skills associated with science, technology, engineering and mathematics are increasingly important for jobs that aren’t traditionally defined as being in STEM fields.
“People are measuring the number of Ph. D. engineers and scientists out there, but the mechanics putting the wings on the airplanes need STEM skill sets, too,” he says. “This is not simply an issue about guys with lab coats and pocket protectors. This is way beyond that.”
Launched with support from the Raytheon Company, the new U.S. News/Raytheon STEM Index measures annual changes in key indicators of STEM activity in the United States relative to the year 2000; it is not a comprehensive measure of all STEM economic or STEM education activity in the United States and does not determine whether explicit STEM goals are being met. The Index is made up of 93 sub-indices and thousands of data points divided into eight components: ACT math and science scores, Advance Placement (AP) test scores in STEM subjects, college and graduate degrees granted, U.S. employment in STEM fields, Program for International Student Assessments (PISA) math and science scores, SAT math scores, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) math scores and interest in STEM at the high school level. It relies on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the National Center for Education Statistics, the College Board, the National Research Center for Colleges & University Admissions, the ACT and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
As with other widely followed indices like the S&P 500 or the Consumer Price Index, the weights and components for future U.S News/Raytheon STEM Indices will likely change as more numerous and refined indicators become available. “For instance, we know that the way the federal government classifies STEM jobs undercounts them, possibly by a lot,” Kelly explains.
“Science, technology, engineering and math form the foundation of the global economy,” says Raytheon Chairman William Swanson. “Yet, as the STEM Index suggests, if educational trends continue, fewer qualified candidates will be available to support growth in these areas. It’s critical to our business and the United States’ long term economic outlook that we inspire young people to engage in STEM and dedicate resources to supporting them throughout their academic lives.”
Even with the most weight given to the broadest indicators — STEM employment and STEM degrees granted — the Index shows there has been only modest gains in overall STEM activity since 2000.
The component index for AP tests offers one such example. “In 2000, around 423,000 STEM AP tests were taken,” Morse explains. “In 2013, that number ballooned to 1.2 million. This shows us that despite our graph looking like AP STEM is in a major downslide, in reality there has been real growth in numbers. This is an indication of the rapidly growing popularity of all AP tests in general and that the growth in STEM AP tests is not keeping pace.”
Still, the relatively flat overall Index calls into question the effectiveness of multiple plans to increase STEM awareness and activity in the U.S., including President Barack Obama’s 2009 Educate to Innovate initiative. While the actual number of STEM degrees granted, employment in STEM fields, and the number of STEM-related AP tests have gone up since 2009, other indicators — like SAT and NAEP scores — have stagnated, and other key areas have declined.
“There’s not much evidence so far that government actions have had a significant effect,” Kelly says, stressing that some initiatives, like the Common Core State Standards, which were created in part to address the national STEM education crisis, have not been yet fully implemented.
According to the U.S. News/Raytheon STEM Index, high school student interest in STEM fields reached a low point in 2004, dropping nearly 19 percent from the base-year calculations. Interest levels climbed steadily until 2009, when they began to decline again. In spite of the intense drive to encourage students to study science, interest levels fell between 2009 and 2013 and are now just slightly below where they were in 2000.
The lack of progress among female and minority students is especially troubling in the long term.
“A big part of the problem is the continuing split that puts Asian-Americans and white males on the side of those who are driven to acquire STEM skills, and women, blacks and Latinos on the other side of the dividing line” says Kelly. “T
he labor pool going forward will not be made up mainly of white males and Asian-Americans. The labor pool will be increasingly Latino, and that group is not advancing in STEM fields right now.”
As high school students’ interest in STEM has waned, their scores on international assessments like PISA have dropped, the U.S. News/Raytheon STEM Index shows. According to the latest PISA data, released in December, students in other countries continue to outperform those from the United States in math and science.
“The big picture of U.S. performance on the 2012 PISA is straightforward and stark. It is the picture of educational stagnation,” Secretary of Education Arne Duncan said at the time. “In a knowledge-based, global economy, where education is more important than ever before, both to individual success and collective prosperity, our students are basically losing ground.”
But Kelly cautions that the issue is more complicated than just “us vs. them.” While international assessments like PISA show the U.S. is falling behind, other data used in the U.S. News/Raytheon STEM Index, like NAEP scores, show an improvement over time.
“Even with gains domestically, we can still be losing ground against our international competitors,” Kelly explains.
“There are many very good initiatives and lots of work being done to address the problem,” he continues. “But as the data show, it’s still not enough. There is a mismatch of skills and jobs, of supply and demand, and the challenge is to get them aligned again.”
PetSmart to Stop Selling Pet Treats Made in China
in Products/by MAM TeamIn an update of its investigation last week, the FDA said it found that antiviral drug amantadine in some samples of imported chicken jerky treats sold a year or more ago, but doesn’t think it caused the illnesses. The FDA said it will continue to investigate.
Rival Petco announced on Tuesday that it would remove all Chinese-made treats from its 1,300 stores by the end of this year after shoppers pushed them to do so. The San Diego company said it has been cutting the number of those treats it sells over the past three years.
PetSmart Inc., which is based in Phoenix, owns more than 1,300 stores in North America.
Toxic Jerky Treats Linked to More Than 1,000 Dog Deaths
in Product reviews, Products/by MAM Team“Always be aware of what you’re buying and where it’s coming from,” Levine said.
Yet that may not always be enough to keep pets safe; products stamped “Made in the USA” could still contain ingredients sourced from China or other countries, the FDA warned.
The FDA has partnered with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to figure out what foods may be contributing to pet disease. The study will compare the foods eaten by sick dogs to those eaten by dogs who haven’t gotten sick, in order to determine if the jerky is really the culprit.
So far, testing of jerky pet treats from China revealed low levels of antibiotics as well as the antiviral drug amantadine in some chicken samples. Although FDA-approved for pain-control applications in humans and in dogs, the agency prohibited its use in poultry in 2006 to help preserve its effectiveness.
The FDA does not believe amantadine contributed to the illnesses, as the side effects of the drug do not correlate with the symptoms seen in the pets; however, amantadine should not be present at all in jerky treats.
Chinese authorities have agreed to conduct additional screenings and follow up with jerky treat manufacturers, and the FDA has notified U.S. treat makers of the presence of amantadine in some jerky products. The agency will also continue testing these products for drugs and other antivirals.
The FDA cautioned pet owners that jerky pet treats are not required for a balanced diet. If your pet experiences any sign of illness, including vomiting, diarrhea and lethargy, contact your veterinarian right away.